Going to sleep shortly under the assumption of a Trump win. Obviously, there was a so-called Bradley Effect where people were not honest with pollsters. The Latino vote did increase greatly and performed as I last discussed. But the white vote – including the college-educated women that were supposed to be clearly for Clinton – didn’t vote as polled. Were it not for Latinos, who knows how much worse it would be? Clearly, I was very wrong on my assumptions on the reliability of the broader polling.
With that said, the ball is now in the Republicans’ court to reassure the part of America that voted for Clinton – likely the plurality of voters as she still seems on track to win the popular vote – that they are ready to govern. Markets are going to crash tomorrow and probably will stay down until they get some sense that the radical policies suggested by Trump were just campaign promises and not where they seriously plan to govern.
On immigration, the issue I obviously focus on the most, there is a great deal of unknown out there. The exit polls suggested that voters – as many as 70% – are in favor of a path to citizenship. And the wall of blue in the western part of the US shows what Republicans will face in the future as demographics eventually catch up. Trump hinted in September – and then reversed quickly – saying he might be in favor of reasonable immigration reform. Some of his closest advisors – Rudy Guiliani, Newt Gingrich and Chris Christie – all have been reasonable on immigration over the years. Some think Trump mainly wanted to get elected and will let others largely run things. That could be good or bad depending on who he chooses. If he picks Jeff Sessions to design his immigration policy, we’re sunk. But if he listens to Reince Preibus, he’ll go in a different direction. He may couch a token policy of building more fencing – a wall if you will – that’s part of a broader immigration reform package. Obviously wishful thinking. But it would be smart politics.
We’ll actually find out pretty quickly what is going to happen. The President can kill the DACA program the first day in office. Trump could signal moderation by indicating he will defer changing the policy while he reviews his immigration plans.
In the meantime, the DAPA program is probably dead. I very much doubt a President Trump will be interested – at least for a while.
As for all the other issues, it’s a mystery. Donald Trump was basically a Democrat just a few years ago. I honestly don’t think he believes in anything other than himself. So we’ll all just have to hope for the best.
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